Sat, Aug 19, 2017

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
  • Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 191124
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Kenneth, located several hundred miles southwest of the
    southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth are issued under
    WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
    Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
    under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
  • Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
    ...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.6, -120.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ33 KNHC 191022 CCA
    TCPEP3
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number   4...CORRRECTED
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
    200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
    
    CORRECTED STORM NAME IN DISCUSSION SECTION
    
    ...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC
    WATERS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.6N 120.2W
    ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
    located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Kenneth is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
    motion should continue during the weekend.
    
    Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
    Kenneth could become a hurricane on Sunday.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ23 KNHC 190839
    TCMEP3
     
    TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
    0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.2W AT 19/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.2W AT 19/0900Z
    AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 119.5W
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 120.2W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
    
    000
    WTPZ43 KNHC 190839
    TCDEP3
    
    Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
    200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017
    
    Microwave data reveal that Kenneth is not well organized yet
    with the low- and mid-level centers well separated. The low-level
    center is located on the northeastern edge of the convection due to
    northerly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. The overall outflow
    pattern is well established. A partial ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC
    and Dvorak estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains at
    35 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease a little, and Kenneth will
    be moving over warm waters for the next two days. On this basis, the
    NHC forecast calls for some strengthening, and Kenneth could become
    a hurricane by Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the
    cyclone is expected to be moving over cooler waters and weakening
    should then begin.
    
    The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
    or 285 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow
    around the subtropical high, and this track should continue for
    the next day or two. After that time, Kenneth should have reached
    the western end of ridge, and it should then gradually turn more to
    the northwest or north-northwest. For the next 2 to 3 days, the
    track guidance is pretty tightly clustered, increasing the
    confidence in the forecast. Beyond 3 days, the forecast is less
    certain since the guidance spread is large. The NHC forecast is in
    the middle of the guidance envelope which is bounded by the ECMWF on
    the west side and by the GFS and the HWRF models on the right. The
    official forecast does not depart much from the previous one during
    the first 3 days, and is shifted a little bit to the right
    thereafter.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/0900Z 15.6N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
     36H  20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
     48H  21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
     96H  23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
    120H  24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
    
    000
    FOPZ13 KNHC 190839
    PWSEP3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
    0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
    LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
      ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
      ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
      ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    15N 120W       34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    15N 125W       34  X  20(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
     
    20N 125W       34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
     
    20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  35(41)  30(71)   1(72)   X(72)
    20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  26(33)   1(34)   X(34)
    20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   X(14)
     
    25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)
     
    20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)
     
    25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)
    25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
     
    30N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
    

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